One thing which is for sure, in my opinion, is that regardless of the reasons gold will not fall and last year's under-performing gold stocks will start performing and price appreciation is almost inevitable.
In this interview from The Gold Report with Matthew Zyistra there reason for optimism:
"There is definitely a good selection of underpriced junior gold and silver stocks available before the rest of the herd finally wakes up and smells the gold."
Junior gold, silver and pgm stocks to perform in 2012
After a tough year in 2011, there is definitely a good selection of underpriced junior resource stocks available for astute investors to focus on before the rest of the herd finally wakes up and smells the gold. In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, Matthew Zylstra, mining analyst at Northern Securities, reviews the gold, silver and PGM markets and tells us why he believes that better times are ahead for junior miners in 2012 and which ones he particularly likes at current price levels. - Zig Lambo of The Gold Report (1/30/12)Excerpts from the Interview:
The Gold Report: When you last spoke with The Gold Report in early March of last year, gold was trading around $1,420/ounce (oz) and silver was around $36/oz. Silver peaked about $49/oz in late April and then gold hit around $1,900/oz in September. Now we're back up above $1,700/oz on gold and about $33/oz on silver. Where do you see these prices going this year, after it appears that they have likely bottomed out?
Matthew Zylstra: We're long-term bulls on both metals. Gold has been correcting since September and it looks like it bottomed out around $1,500/oz. We believe the recent decline is a normal pullback in a longer-term uptrend where nothing has really changed to the outlook. We see a perfect environment for the metal-concerns over our currency debasement, negative real interest rates, geopolitical friction, etc. I expect gold will reclaim the 2011 highs and could reach $2,000/oz.
For silver, the picture is less clear. Silver is, in part, an industrial metal accounting for around 50% of demand and less of a currency. Silver peaked at almost $50/oz in April 2011 and the price has been very volatile. We think the move is a correction, again, in a longer uptrend going back to 2003. I expect silver will trade around the mid-$30/oz range this year.
We actually feel platinum has a lot of potential. South Africa, Zimbabwe and Russia account for about 90% of platinum production and there's a scarcity of good platinum metals group (PMG) projects outside those countries. We expect increased investment demand and believe that supply disruptions, as well as resource nationalization concerns, will drive the price higher. We note that Sprott Asset Management has formed a physical platinum and palladium trust, which could boost investment demand. ...
TGR: So, what do you think is going to be some sort of catalyst to get people more excited faster? Or is this just going to have to be a gradual progression and we are going to have to wait for $2,000/oz gold and $50/oz silver for people to really get into this market?
MZ: The disconnect between gold/silver prices and mining company equities has grown considerably. The sector is cheap by historical standards when you consider the price of gold miners' shares relative to the price of gold. The Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index (XAU), which is an index of 16 precious metals and mining companies, is close to the lowest level it has been since the 2008 crisis relative to gold. We expect this ratio to gradually work its way back to the average. If we see gold mining stocks move up to even the low end of their historical range versus gold, it will mean a significant gain for many of these companies.
Increased merger and acquisition (M&A) activity in the sector will get people interested in a lot of these companies. As the price of gold and silver continues to rise, the economics become very compelling, especially for large- and mid-cap companies to acquire smaller players.
More interest in precious metals will help too. With what I see as a developing currency war-a race to devalue-I think more investors are going to turn to precious metals and related equities.
TGR: It certainly seems like there are a lot of smaller companies out there with some interesting looking projects that may be sitting ducks for being taken over. If they have to keep going back to the market to raise more money and create more dilution, that could be a problem. What's your thinking on that?
MZ: Small exploration companies are going to continue to need funds to advance their projects, and costs have been increasing. That's a major problem. The need to raise capital isn't going to change but we are seeing alternative ways of financing such as gold and silver streams, alternative debt arrangements and joint ventures, which mean less dilution. ...
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