Another Mining Analyst Asks: Is It Time to Get into Gold Junior Mining Plays?

Looks like there is a lot of talk building around this sector.

In this article by Philip Ker he points to the opportunities to: "identify lower-risk opportunities in projects that are backed by strong management, and ones that can provide value growth in the future"

It all bodes well for little companies like New Carolin Gold Corp. (LAD.V) over the coming year in my opinion.

...and yes i do hold shares of LAD.V

=)

Here are some excerpts from the article ·see link at bottom to read full article.

Is It Time to Get into Gold Junior Mining Plays?

Philip Ker, a mining analyst for Canada-based Union Securities Ltd., says while current market conditions are affecting the junior mining space, they are also helping investors to identify low-risk opportunities and projects that may provide future value growth. In this exclusive interview for The Gold Report, Ker discusses how the industry will need to continue to see positive news, especially from senior and midtier producers, which should trickle down to the juniors.

he Gold Report: Philip, welcome. In a recent Union Securities research report, you wrote, "Despite global market volatility and foreign debt issues, we believe market valuations for mining companies, particularly in the precious metals sector, appear to be at incredibly low prices, on level with values seen prior to Q310's commodity bull run. This is regardless of gold and silver being approximately 30% and 50% higher, respectively." I agree that current share prices in the junior precious metals space are comparative to that timeframe, but we have been in a risk-off sector investing environment since last July, and you are operating in a high-risk sector. Share prices are low but without investors bidding up prices, how are we going to see a rebound in junior precious metals equities?

Philip Ker: We are seeing current market conditions affect the junior mining space, but also educating investors and helping them identify lower-risk opportunities in projects that are backed by strong management, and ones that can provide value growth in the future. We will need to see continuous positive news, particularly from the senior and midtier producers, at which point it should give more traction toward junior equities. I also expect mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity to be a key factor for the juniors as a result of the strong balance sheets senior producers continue to build; as they look to replenish diminishing production portfolios they will target junior developers coming online.

TGR: Are you saying to stay on the sidelines at your peril?

PK: Not necessarily. It is more or less identifying the correct opportunity and the projects that are most targeted for growth that would be a good fit for a senior producer in its portfolio. ...
TGR: One thing, though, with regard to M&A activity, we recently watched Kinross Gold Corp.'s (K:TSX; KGC:NYSE) shares fall about 20% after it announced there were problems with its Tasiast gold mine in Mauritania, which it acquired through the takeover of Red Back Mining Inc. (RBI:TSX) early last year or the year before. Do you think something like that might make the majors think twice about dipping into the sector with some juniors with prospects that look promising?

PK: What was skeptical about that original takeover was that Kinross was stepping outside of the gold space and more into a copper play. Getting that project into development has been a task for Kinross and, as seen recently with the write-down along with the higher-than-anticipated costs, affected them considerably.

TGR: Will that have any trickle-down effect on the sector at large in terms of potential takeovers?

PK: No. There is always going to be M&A. The seniors need to do their due diligence in order to identify the best-fit projects and ones that they can develop or take over at a stage where they can restructure or integrate the management and more efficiently operate the new project.

Read full article here.

This is The Year for Gold and Silver Juniors to Shine

You gotta love this year so far in the markets: Stock markets are performing like there's no problem. This could mean that the 'owners' of our world have their servants working the crowd seeking 'buyers' for the coming reality-check which may be delivered via a nasty short attack across all markets as the 'sleepeze' wears off and Europe finds more challenges again. Or it could mean that, because money will stay cheap, what we are seeing is actually a form of inflation—'throwing money from a helicopter' (to quote Bernanke). Or, of course that the world is doing wonderfully well thank you very much and there is no real problem LOL.

One thing which is for sure, in my opinion, is that regardless of the reasons gold will not fall and last year's under-performing gold stocks will start performing and price appreciation is almost inevitable.

In this interview from The Gold Report with Matthew Zyistra there reason for optimism:
"There is definitely a good selection of underpriced junior gold and silver stocks available before the rest of the herd finally wakes up and smells the gold."

Junior gold, silver and pgm stocks to perform in 2012

After a tough year in 2011, there is definitely a good selection of underpriced junior resource stocks available for astute investors to focus on before the rest of the herd finally wakes up and smells the gold. In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, Matthew Zylstra, mining analyst at Northern Securities, reviews the gold, silver and PGM markets and tells us why he believes that better times are ahead for junior miners in 2012 and which ones he particularly likes at current price levels. - Zig Lambo of The Gold Report (1/30/12)

Excerpts from the Interview:

The Gold Report: When you last spoke with The Gold Report in early March of last year, gold was trading around $1,420/ounce (oz) and silver was around $36/oz. Silver peaked about $49/oz in late April and then gold hit around $1,900/oz in September. Now we're back up above $1,700/oz on gold and about $33/oz on silver. Where do you see these prices going this year, after it appears that they have likely bottomed out?

Matthew Zylstra: We're long-term bulls on both metals. Gold has been correcting since September and it looks like it bottomed out around $1,500/oz. We believe the recent decline is a normal pullback in a longer-term uptrend where nothing has really changed to the outlook. We see a perfect environment for the metal-concerns over our currency debasement, negative real interest rates, geopolitical friction, etc. I expect gold will reclaim the 2011 highs and could reach $2,000/oz.

For silver, the picture is less clear. Silver is, in part, an industrial metal accounting for around 50% of demand and less of a currency. Silver peaked at almost $50/oz in April 2011 and the price has been very volatile. We think the move is a correction, again, in a longer uptrend going back to 2003. I expect silver will trade around the mid-$30/oz range this year.

We actually feel platinum has a lot of potential. South Africa, Zimbabwe and Russia account for about 90% of platinum production and there's a scarcity of good platinum metals group (PMG) projects outside those countries. We expect increased investment demand and believe that supply disruptions, as well as resource nationalization concerns, will drive the price higher. We note that Sprott Asset Management has formed a physical platinum and palladium trust, which could boost investment demand. ...

TGR: So, what do you think is going to be some sort of catalyst to get people more excited faster? Or is this just going to have to be a gradual progression and we are going to have to wait for $2,000/oz gold and $50/oz silver for people to really get into this market?

MZ: The disconnect between gold/silver prices and mining company equities has grown considerably. The sector is cheap by historical standards when you consider the price of gold miners' shares relative to the price of gold. The Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index (XAU), which is an index of 16 precious metals and mining companies, is close to the lowest level it has been since the 2008 crisis relative to gold. We expect this ratio to gradually work its way back to the average. If we see gold mining stocks move up to even the low end of their historical range versus gold, it will mean a significant gain for many of these companies.

Increased merger and acquisition (M&A) activity in the sector will get people interested in a lot of these companies. As the price of gold and silver continues to rise, the economics become very compelling, especially for large- and mid-cap companies to acquire smaller players.

More interest in precious metals will help too. With what I see as a developing currency war-a race to devalue-I think more investors are going to turn to precious metals and related equities.

TGR: It certainly seems like there are a lot of smaller companies out there with some interesting looking projects that may be sitting ducks for being taken over. If they have to keep going back to the market to raise more money and create more dilution, that could be a problem. What's your thinking on that?

MZ: Small exploration companies are going to continue to need funds to advance their projects, and costs have been increasing. That's a major problem. The need to raise capital isn't going to change but we are seeing alternative ways of financing such as gold and silver streams, alternative debt arrangements and joint ventures, which mean less dilution. ...

Read full article here.

Choices choices: Invest in “Toxic Waste Treasuries” or Gold and Silver?

Time to step back as an investor still may have a few dollars available and think very hard about not what the return-on-capital might be but rather focus on the return of capital and whether the fiat currency system(s) is a safe place for its encapsulated wealth at all!
Let's weigh today's basics with Bob Chapman..
G

Bob Chapman

October 5, 2011

Why would, almost non-yielding Treasuries, be a safe haven, when the government is broke? We would guess that, when a US dollar collapse comes, that owners of such bonds, notes and bills would like to lose equally what everyone else holding these debt instruments loses. We call it a commitment to stupidity. Those that see the folly in such action switch their cash flow to commodities, gold and silver. From a rational point of view such a switch is logical. Needless to say, central bankers, government bureaucrats and politicians get upset when investors engage in such alternatives and proceed to manipulate markets to their own satisfaction to the detriment of the people. We have to wonder what is so attractive about owning debt that pays little or no interest? In order to avoid such a dilemma one must step out of the box and separate themselves from the investment sheeple.

Over the past three years the Federal Reserve has purchased $2.25 trillion of Treasuries, Agencies and mortgage bonds known as toxic waste. We have no idea what the cost of this debt was and what its current value is marked to market. All we know is the Fed has debt on its books of some $3 trillion that they admit to. The Fed operates in secret and when asked difficult questions about its operations it says it is a state secret. Fortunately the court system and Dodd-Frank have uncovered some of these secrets, like a few trillion here they forget to tell us about and $16.1 trillion there that they covered up. These monies, that the Fed created out of thin air, went to transnational conglomerates and the banking and financial sectors in the US, England and Europe. A tight elitist connected group, that for some reason the Fed didn’t want to tell us about. The Fed bailed out temporarily banking in the western world and is still brazenly doing so. The latest caper was a $500 billion swap to again bailout European banks. Of course, three other central banks were supposedly partners in this bailout. If you believe that we have a bridge you’d really be interested in for sale. These people in the Fed and within government are incapable of telling the truth. Yes, the Fed creates reserves, totally without collateralization by buying Treasuries and other securities. No, they are not printing paper money, but what they are doing is tantamount to that.
...
 Read more...