Friday, September 23, 2011

Has the moment for a brazen gold revaluation arrived?

This is a repost from zerohedge.com titled: "Don Coxe's Fascinating Take On Why The Time For The US To "LBO" The Gold Market Has Arrived"

With fiat currencies searching anxiously for something solid to base their utility on—even their very existence—perhaps our long walk on the wild side with paper that only has 'confidence' as it's core strength is coming to an end.  The idea that gold can again become the agreed basis for portable and transferable value so necessary in the business of our planet.

Zerohedge does a wonderful job of extending and placing Don Coxe's pint of view deeper into the American economic context.

The article:

A few short weeks ago we described the transition of America from a government "on behalf of the people" to one "in control of the people" catalyzed, as Bill Buckler, put it simply, by one simple event: the confiscation of America's gold, and the ushering in of the welfare (or "promise") state, the same welfare state that now is supported by a system that no matter how hard one denies, is nothing but a ponzi scheme. Today, we follow up that article, with a very thought-provoking observations by BMO's Don Coxe, in which he describes that just like in the time of FDR, for whom the creation of a "mild" inflation was a prime prerogative to offset the depressionary deflation gripping the land, the moment for a brazen gold revaluation by none other than the US government has arrived. Unfortunately, it likely also means that any scheme in which the government opens a buy/sell gold window at a substantially higher price point, will mean that very soon, either by guile or by force, the US government will once again be the prime and sole owner of all the gold. As Coxe says, "The gold bugs have long proclaimed their own version of the Golden Rule: “He who has the gold makes the rules." By that standard, Barack Obama could become the leader of the world overnight." And while it is described in much more succinct detail below, in summary, Coxe's point is that the time for a government "LBO" of the gold market, one in which every last ounce is extracted from the skittish public, in exchange for pseudo-equivalent assets such as gold-backed bonds, has arrived. The only question is what the acquisition price of the risk-free alternative to fiat would be, and hence how much higher will investors push the price in anticipation of the inevitable 25% take out premium. Once the public realizes that this is the endgame, and that the buyer of only resort will be none other than Uncle Sam... then look out above.

As for the context of Executive Order 6102.2, Coxe notes: "When nearly all OECD economies are running huge deficits at a time of near-zero interest rates, and nearly all governments are looking for ways to raise revenues without imposing economy-unfriendly taxes, why don't the big holders revalue their gold to, say, $2,200 an ounce and declare themselves willing sellers at that price—in bars or in bonds backed by gold—and willing buyers at, say, $2,000? Roosevelt revalued gold from $20.67 an ounce to $35 and declared that the US was a buyer and seller at that price. He also made it illegal for US citizens to own gold. By the end of the Depression, most of the world's visible gold reserves were in Fort Knox."

Most importantly, Coxe observes that "now is a good time to lock in the gold bull market by monetizing the  nation's holdings through various strategies and vehicles forty years after Nixon uncapped gold and 78 years after Roosevelt boosted it 70%. Why don't the governments bring out their gold and use it to back their bonds? Obama should, in our view, try to find one non-Keynesian economist who understands gold to advise him. We’re sure he could get an old-fashioned scholar from the University of Chicago to help him out if he made a few calls."

Must read.

Governments, Central Banks, and Gold

Perhaps the most enduring paradox in all finance is the way major governments and central banks treat their gold holdings: they ignore them.

When nearly all OECD economies are running huge deficits at a time of near-zero interest rates, and nearly all governments are looking for ways to raise revenues without imposing economy-unfriendly taxes, why don't the big holders revalue their gold to, say, $2,200 an ounce and declare themselves willing sellers at that price—in bars or in bonds backed by gold—and willing buyers at, say, $2,000?

Roosevelt revalued gold from $20.67 an ounce to $35 and declared that the US was a buyer and seller at that price. He also made it illegal for US citizens to own gold.

By the end of the Depression, most of the world's visible gold reserves were in Fort Knox.
Apart from all the jobs created in Nevada and other gold-mining states, this attempt to introduce controlled inflation at a time of surging deflation was at least mildly salutary. Having most of the world's gold also proved extremely useful in helping to finance the recoveries in war-torn Western Europe.

Gold's roaring run to $1800 must be a huge embarrassment to the central bankers. Why should investors be rushing out of government bonds into bullion? Don't they believe us when we tell them that printing all this money isn't going to debauch the currency?
The best way to take gold out of its newfound role as moral arbiter of governments' fiscal and monetary policies may be to cap it.

Yes, captious critics would say that this is the equivalent of buying a bathroom scale whose highest reading is three pounds above the buyer's current weight.

But desperate times call for desperate measures.

The gold bugs have long proclaimed their own version of the Golden Rule:
“He who has the gold makes the rules."

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