In this article by Philip Ker he points to the opportunities to: "identify lower-risk opportunities in projects that are backed by strong management, and ones that can provide value growth in the future"
It all bodes well for little companies like New Carolin Gold Corp. (LAD.V) over the coming year in my opinion.
...and yes i do hold shares of LAD.V
Here are some excerpts from the article ·see link at bottom to read full article.
Is It Time to Get into Gold Junior Mining Plays?
Philip Ker, a mining analyst for Canada-based Union Securities Ltd., says while current market conditions are affecting the junior mining space, they are also helping investors to identify low-risk opportunities and projects that may provide future value growth. In this exclusive interview for The Gold Report, Ker discusses how the industry will need to continue to see positive news, especially from senior and midtier producers, which should trickle down to the juniors.
he Gold Report: Philip, welcome. In a recent Union Securities research report, you wrote, "Despite global market volatility and foreign debt issues, we believe market valuations for mining companies, particularly in the precious metals sector, appear to be at incredibly low prices, on level with values seen prior to Q310's commodity bull run. This is regardless of gold and silver being approximately 30% and 50% higher, respectively." I agree that current share prices in the junior precious metals space are comparative to that timeframe, but we have been in a risk-off sector investing environment since last July, and you are operating in a high-risk sector. Share prices are low but without investors bidding up prices, how are we going to see a rebound in junior precious metals equities?
Philip Ker: We are seeing current market conditions affect the junior mining space, but also educating investors and helping them identify lower-risk opportunities in projects that are backed by strong management, and ones that can provide value growth in the future. We will need to see continuous positive news, particularly from the senior and midtier producers, at which point it should give more traction toward junior equities. I also expect mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity to be a key factor for the juniors as a result of the strong balance sheets senior producers continue to build; as they look to replenish diminishing production portfolios they will target junior developers coming online.
TGR: Are you saying to stay on the sidelines at your peril?
PK: Not necessarily. It is more or less identifying the correct opportunity and the projects that are most targeted for growth that would be a good fit for a senior producer in its portfolio. ...
TGR: One thing, though, with regard to M&A activity, we recently watched Kinross Gold Corp.'s (K:TSX; KGC:NYSE) shares fall about 20% after it announced there were problems with its Tasiast gold mine in Mauritania, which it acquired through the takeover of Red Back Mining Inc. (RBI:TSX) early last year or the year before. Do you think something like that might make the majors think twice about dipping into the sector with some juniors with prospects that look promising?
PK: What was skeptical about that original takeover was that Kinross was stepping outside of the gold space and more into a copper play. Getting that project into development has been a task for Kinross and, as seen recently with the write-down along with the higher-than-anticipated costs, affected them considerably.
TGR: Will that have any trickle-down effect on the sector at large in terms of potential takeovers?
PK: No. There is always going to be M&A. The seniors need to do their due diligence in order to identify the best-fit projects and ones that they can develop or take over at a stage where they can restructure or integrate the management and more efficiently operate the new project.
Read full article here.